Move a Tropical Cyclone with 4D-Var and Vortex Dynamical Initialization in WRF Model     

王挺  彭跃华  张邦林  梁卓轩  施伟来 《热带气象学报(英文版)》2021,27(3):191-200

Previous studies showed that 4 D-Var technique used for data assimilation could be modified for weather control. This study demonstrates the ability of 4 D-Var to influence the future path of a tropical cyclone by calculating perturbations in WRF simulation. Given the background error covariance matrix, the initial field is improved by the vortex dynamic initialization technique. Our results show that 4 D-Var can be applied to control the trajectory of simulated tropical cyclones by producing "optimal" perturbations. In the numerical simulation experiment of Typhoon Mitag in 2019, after this kind of weather control similar to data assimilation, the tropical cyclone moved obviously,and the damaging wind over the coastline weakened. The prediction results after the initial field modified by 4 D-Var have a great change, and the position of the tropical cyclone moved about 0.5° southeastward after assimilation,which misses the southeast coast of China. Moreover, the damaging wind is also weakened. Since the 4 D-Var is premised on the assumption that the model is perfect and does not consider the model error, then the research plan to consider model error and introduce new methods is discussed in the paper.  相似文献   

Effect　of　the　Interaction　of　Different　Scale　Vortices　on　the　Structure　and　Motion　of　Typhoons   总被引：13，自引：1，他引：13  

Chen Lianshou  Luo Zhexian 《大气科学进展》1995,12(2):207-214

ＥｆｆｅｃｔｏｆｔｈｅＩｎｔｅｒａｃｔｉｏｎｏｆＤｉｆｆｅｒｅｎｔＳｃａｌｅＶｏｒｔｉｃｅｓｏｎｔｈｅＳｔｒｕｃｔｕｒｅａｎｄＭｏｔｉｏｎｏｆＴｙｐｈｏｏｎｓＣｈｅｎＬｉａｎｓｈｏｕ（陈联寿）（ＣｈｉｎｅｓｅＡｃａｄｅｍｙｏｆＭｅｔ６ｏｒｏｌｏｇｉｃ...  相似文献   

台风西北侧强对流天气浅析   总被引：1，自引：2，他引：1  

温晶 《广东气象》2001,(3):11-13

台前强对流天气过程是较为罕见的.本文通过计算华南地区12站的物理参数以及分析天气形势,并结合台风结构来寻求强对流产生的内外因素.以便为日后的台前天气预报工作服务.  相似文献   

8616号台风风场非对称研究   总被引：3，自引：1，他引：3  

吴迪生 《大气科学》1991,15(5):98-105

本文对8616号台风动力学特征和能量学特征量进行了计算和分析。研究结果表明,这个台风风速分布不对称,气旋性最大切向风位于台风右前象限。风速的垂直切变随台风加强而减弱。强流入位于台风南半圆300hPa以下,流入最大值在700hPa层附近。高层最强反气旋流出在150—100hPa层附近,流出主要位于台风北半圆。在台风内区,正涡度分布近似准对称,散度分布很不对称。这个台风垂直运动分布与台风的发展及位置有密切关系。台风整个生命期均具有暖心结构,250—200hPa附近增暖最明显。扰动期500hPa以上存在干燥层,  相似文献   

高层冷涡的不同结构对台风运动的影响   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：2       下载免费PDF全文

费亮  李小凡 《应用气象学报》1993,4(1):1-7

通过对不同水平和垂直结构的高层冷涡在台风移动中的作用的对比试验，发现高层冷涡的水平和垂直结构变化会影响台风的运动。对总涡度倾向分布和强度的比较分析，发现正压过程主导台风运动的方向，而斜压过程在某些情况下对台风移速有很大影响。通过各动力项对总涡度倾向贡献的讨论，发现涡度平流对总涡度倾向正中心的贡献主要来自引导气流对非对称涡度场的平流。散度场贡献主要来自行星涡度和非对称散度相关场。最后还得到预报性的结论:台风朝对流层上层的辐合中心或对流层中下层辐散中心方向移动。  相似文献   

数值预报产品在台风路径预报中的应用     

季晓阳 《海洋预报》1996,13(1):16-22

利用欧洲中期天气预报中心和国家海洋环境预报中心的数值预报产品，形成包括理想台风模型的模式初值，用正压原始方程做台风路径预报，经过１９９４年的６个台风的实时预报试验，效果较好。  相似文献   

Typhoon disaster in China: prediction,prevention, and mitigation   总被引：4，自引：1，他引：3  

Defu Liu  Liang Pang  Botao Xie 《Natural Hazards》2009,49(3):421-436

Typhoon-induced disaster is one of the most important factors influencing the economic development and more than 250 million in China. In view of the existing state of typhoon disaster prediction, prevention, and mitigation, this paper proposes a new probability model, Multivariate Compound Extreme Value Distribution (MCEVD), to predict typhoon-induced extreme disaster events. This model establishes prevention criteria for coastal areas, offshore structures, and estuarine cities, and provides an appropriate mitigation scheme for disaster risk management and decision-making.  相似文献   

Numerical simulation of typhoon surges along the coast of Taiwan   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Hsien-Wen Li  Cheng-Han Tsai  Yao-Tsai Lo 《Natural Hazards》2009,50(3):413-431

A numerical model has been designed to study the storm surge induced by typhoon along the coast of Taiwan. The governing equations have been expressed in spherical coordinate system, and a finite difference method has been used to solve them. In the system of hydrodynamical equations, the nonlinear advection and lateral eddy viscosity terms are prominent in shallow coastal waters. Air pressure gradient and wind stresses are the driving forces in the model of typhoon surge. The model has been verified with storm surges induced by Typhoons Herb in 1996, and by typhoons Kai-Tak and Bilis in 2000.  相似文献   

Analysis of rainfall-induced infinite slope failure during typhoon using a hydrological–geotechnical model     

Agus Setyo Muntohar  Hung-Jiun Liao 《Environmental Geology》2009,56(6):1145-1159

Rainwater infiltration during typhoons tends to trigger slope instability. This paper presents the results of a study on slope response to rainwater infiltration during heavy rainfall in a mountain area of Taiwan. The Green-Ampt infiltration model is adopted here to study the behavior of rainwater infiltration on slopes. The failure mechanism of infinite slope is chosen to represent the rainfall-induced shallow slope failure. By combining rain infiltration model and infinite slope analysis, the proposed model can estimate the occurrence time of a slope failure. In general, if a slope failure is to happen on a slope covered with low permeability soil, failure tends to happen after the occurrence of the maximum rainfall intensity. In contrast, slope failure tends to occur prior to the occurrence of maximum rainfall intensity if a slope is covered with high-permeability soil. To predict the potential and timing of a landslide, a method is proposed here based on the normalized rainfall intensity (NRI) and normalized accumulated rainfall (NAR). If the actual NAR is higher than the NAR calculated by the proposed method, slope failure is very likely to happen. Otherwise, the slope is unlikely to fail. The applicability of the proposed model to occurrence time and the NAR–NRI relationship is evaluated using landslide cases obtained from the literature. The results of the proposed method are close to that of the selected cases. It verifies the applicability of the proposed method to slopes in different areas of the world. An erratum to this article can be found at  相似文献   

Erratum to: Failure characteristics of rainfall-induced shallow landslides in granitic terrains of Shikoku Island of Japan     

Ranjan Kumar Dahal  Shuichi Hasegawa  Atsuko Nonomura  Minoru Yamanaka  Takuro Masuda  Katsuhiro Nishino 《Environmental Geology》2009,56(7):1311-1312

  相似文献